2027 Presidency: Regional Power Struggles and the Fragility of Opposition Unity
As Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election approaches, political tensions are escalating, with regional dynamics and opposition strategies under intense scrutiny. Elder statesman Alhaji Tanko Yakassai has cautioned against the belief that the North alone can determine the next president, emphasizing the necessity of a united front between the North and South. “The presidential election is a national affair. The North alone cannot determine who becomes President; the South alone cannot make it,” Yakassai stated, highlighting the importance of a formidable candidate with both popularity and financial resources.
This perspective challenges recent assertions by Dr. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, former Special Adviser on Political Matters to President Bola Tinubu, who claimed that no politician can win the presidency without Northern support. Yakassai’s remarks underscore the complexities of Nigeria’s political landscape, where regional alliances and national appeal are both critical for electoral success.
The formation of an anti-Tinubu coalition, spearheaded by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, further complicates the political terrain. While the coalition aims to present a united opposition, its perceived Northern-centric approach raises questions about its national viability. The League of Northern Democrats (LND), associated with the coalition, insists its mission is to “re-fix our country” rather than merely seize power. However, critics argue that without broad-based support, the coalition’s efforts may falter.
President Tinubu’s administration appears to be proactively countering these developments by strengthening alliances in the South-South and South-East regions. Notably, defections of key political figures, such as Governor Sheriff Oborevwori and former Governor Ifeanyi Okowa from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Delta State, signal strategic moves to consolidate support ahead of 2027.
Despite these maneuvers, the opposition coalition faces internal challenges. An aide to Atiku Abubakar, speaking anonymously, acknowledged that the coalition is still in its formative stages, focusing on grassroots mobilization rather than immediate engagement with governors. This bottom-up approach aims to build momentum, but the absence of established political figures may hinder its effectiveness.
The Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) has distanced itself from the coalition’s strategies, with National Publicity Secretary Prof. Tukur Mohammed Baba emphasizing that no one can become president solely through regional support. “The constitutional requirements require what is essentially a pan-regional spread of support at some minimum level,” he noted, reinforcing the importance of national cohesion in electoral politics.
As the political landscape evolves, the success of any presidential bid in 2027 will likely depend on the ability to forge inclusive alliances that transcend regional and ethnic divisions. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether the opposition can present a unified front capable of challenging the incumbent administration.
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2027 Presidency: Regional Power Struggles and the Fragility of Opposition Unity