NNPCL’s Rot Runs Deeper: After Kyari, Worse May Follow
When Mele Kyari was finally removed as Group Chief Executive Officer (GCEO) of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), many Nigerians sighed in relief, assuming that the worst days of the state-owned oil firm might be over. It now appears we may have celebrated too soon. The early signs from his successor, Mr. Ojulari, suggest that the NNPCL may not just remain in crisis—it may descend into deeper dysfunction.
On April 18, 2025, the new GCEO boldly declared a target of 3 million barrels per day (mbpd) production and $60 billion in oil investments by 2030. That kind of hollow optimism might be forgivable if it came from a naïve intern, not the head of the nation’s most critical state enterprise. The fact that this pronouncement came within weeks of his appointment tells us something more alarming: the pattern of deception that plagued Kyari’s tenure may continue, if not intensify.
A Legacy of Lies
Since 2013, every GMD or GCEO of NNPCL has offered projections detached from reality, feeding the presidency and the National Assembly false production forecasts that go on to form the shaky foundation of national budgets. Every one of those budgets has failed—collapsing under the weight of crude production shortfalls, oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and sheer institutional ineptitude.
Despite this consistent failure, not one top official of NNPCL or the Ministry of Petroleum has faced meaningful investigation, let alone prosecution. Billions of dollars remain unaccounted for, and opaque accounting still reigns supreme. The Petroleum Industry Act, meant to introduce accountability, has become another smokescreen behind which corruption thrives.
Kyari’s Ghost Still Haunts NNPCL
Kyari’s tenure was riddled with scandal and secrecy. His NNPCL operated like a private conglomerate rather than a public institution—refusing to publish audited financials regularly, inflating subsidy figures, and weaponizing media allies to shield its failings. Yet, his successor appears to be walking the same path, beginning with grandiose targets that ignore both Nigeria’s internal constraints and external limitations like OPEC quotas.
In the first quarter of 2025, Nigeria averaged a mere 1.5mbpd in crude production—far below the inflated 2025 budget benchmark. With OPEC restrictions still capping Nigeria’s output, and without robust refinery infrastructure to process more crude domestically, any talk of hitting 2mbpd, let alone 3mbpd, is pure fantasy. These are not mistakes; they are deliberate fabrications designed to deceive policymakers and sustain a cycle of budgetary fraud.
The Real Cancer: Abuja’s Petroleum Cabal
The problem is systemic. When Nigerian leaders Presidents Jonathan, Buhari, and now Tinubu base national economic plans on the exaggerated figures fed by petroleum czars, they’re not just misinformed; they are complicit. It’s not ignorance it’s political convenience, built on the false hope of oil revenue that never materializes. Meanwhile, the same oil mafia continues to enrich itself at the expense of ordinary Nigerians, whose lives are wrecked by inflation, subsidy scams, and unpaid salaries.
Presidential aides, ministers, and spokespeople routinely peddle lies about NNPCL’s performance, only to quietly admit failure after leaving office. Some, like the late Bola Ige, promised miracles and later blamed “witches and wizards.” The truth is far simpler: entrenched corruption, ineptitude, and a refusal to confront hard facts.
Ojulari’s Dangerous Start
Instead of confronting the rot left behind by Kyari, Mr. Ojulari has chosen to follow the same deceptive playbook. He’s ignoring history, rejecting transparency, and starting with unachievable targets. Worse still, he risks further entrenching the corruption culture at NNPCL where project costs are inflated, contracts are handed to cronies, and billions disappear in the fog of fraudulent accounting.
If he continues down this road, Ojulari’s legacy may surpass even Kyari’s in failure and that is no small feat.
Enough is Enough
The Nigerian public deserves honesty. They deserve leaders who will stop using oil projections to sell lies and fund wasteful spending. They deserve an NNPCL that is truly accountable not a black hole where national wealth goes to die.
Until a full forensic audit is conducted on NNPCL operations past and present and until there are real consequences for those who manipulated production data, diverted funds, or abused office, nothing will change. And 2025, like every year since 2013, will be another year of broken budgets and broken promises.
Reference
NNPCL’s Deepening Crisis: From Kyari’s Failures to Ojulari’s False Promises