In a bold and controversial move, the Dangote Refinery has once again reduced its petrol gantry price this time from ₦835 to ₦825 per litre sending shockwaves through Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector. While hailed by some as a relief for consumers, industry insiders say this is more than a price cut; it’s an aggressive strategy to dominate the market and perhaps, crush the competition.
This latest slash has escalated tensions between the Dangote Refinery and independent depot owners, who are accusing the billionaire-owned facility of engaging in predatory pricing tactics to monopolize Nigeria’s fuel supply chain. The accusation is serious: price manipulation, cartel behavior, and a looming market takeover disguised as consumer-friendly economics.
The Monopoly Allegation: A War for Control
The Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria (DAPPMAN) has raised the alarm over what it describes as a systematic takeover of the industry by the Dangote Group. Their concern? That a single refinery, however large, cannot be allowed to dictate the fuel economy of a nation as large and vulnerable as Nigeria.
“This is not about helping the masses; it’s about strangling competitors,” one oil industry executive, speaking under anonymity, revealed. “Once competitors are dead, who will stop them from hiking prices?”
As of Saturday, May 10, 2025, Dangote Refinery had listed retail prices as low as ₦830 per litre well below the average market landing cost for imported fuel, a figure severely impacted by Nigeria’s volatile foreign exchange market. With most depots still reliant on imported fuel and struggling with rising dollar rates, Dangote’s local production advantage gives it the leverage to undercut rivals with little resistance.
Consumers Cheer, Competitors Bleed
While Nigerians celebrate slightly lower pump prices stations like MRS dropping from ₦880 to ₦836, and Swift stations now selling at ₦835 the true cost may be long-term. Experts warn that this kind of aggressive price war might eventually eliminate smaller players, leaving the market vulnerable to a single mega-corporation.
“Crude oil prices no longer control our pump price. What we’re seeing now is a turf war, and Dangote has the bigger guns,” said an energy analyst with ties to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.
With Dangote now reportedly controlling over 50% of Nigeria’s petrol supply, depot owners are being squeezed out, some even forced to halt operations temporarily due to unsustainable losses.
Regulators Look Away While Industry Burns
Despite the visible tension in the sector, regulators have remained largely passive. The Nigerian government, in its usual fashion, appears to be caught in the web of elite influence, refusing to address growing fears of a looming monopoly. Dangote’s close ties to successive administrations have long raised eyebrows and critics argue that regulatory silence is not coincidental.
Is This Capitalism or Cronyism?
The refinery’s officials have rejected allegations of monopolistic practices, insisting they are simply “meeting local demand” and offering “competitive pricing.” Yet, behind the scenes, insiders allege that Dangote’s business empire is being propped up by massive state support, preferential treatment, and exclusive access to critical infrastructure.
What’s more, several oil marketers allege corruption within government agencies who quietly enable this “hostile takeover” by turning a blind eye to anti-competitive behavior. One marketer called it a “state-enabled corporate capture.”
The Bigger Picture: Consumers Pay Later
While the average Nigerian may enjoy short-term relief at the pumps, economists warn of an impending danger. Once Dangote corners the market, price manipulation could return with a vengeance and with no viable competition, the public would be powerless.
“It’s a textbook strategy: undercut everyone, bleed them out, then jack up prices once the field is yours. Nigerians need to look beyond the pump price and ask: who’s really in control?” said Professor Abdul Kareem, a petroleum economist at the University of Lagos.
The Verdict: A Market in Peril
The Dangote Refinery’s rise should be a national asset, but its unchecked dominance could lead to the very exploitation it claims to end. Without immediate regulatory intervention, Nigeria’s downstream sector could soon be a one-man showrun not by market forces, but by monopolistic might.
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