Can Iran, Israel, and the U.S. All Claim Victory? Ceasefire Shaky Amid Calculated Strikes and Political Posturing
In the aftermath of a rapid and dramatic escalation in Middle Eastern tensions, all three primary actors in the recent conflict Iran, Israel, and the United States are now putting forward their own versions of victory. Yet, beneath the claims of success lies a ceasefire hanging by a thread and a region bracing for the unknown.
The 12-day confrontation, triggered by Israeli airstrikes and accelerated by a U.S. military operation targeting Iran’s key nuclear facilities, culminated in Iran launching a carefully orchestrated missile strike on a U.S. military base in Qatar. No American casualties were reported, and President Donald Trump has since lauded Iran’s “early notice,” which, he claimed, allowed for the protection of lives.
A Calculated Retaliation
According to multiple Iranian officials familiar with the country’s war planning, Iran’s missile response—directed at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar was never intended to escalate into a full-blown war with Washington. Instead, it was designed to save face domestically and signal strength, while minimizing American casualties.
The strikes followed U.S. B-2 bombings of Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, coordinated over the weekend in response to repeated Israeli assaults. Iranian officials confirmed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while ordering retaliation, stressed that the response must remain limited.
Qatar, a regional ally with close ties to both Iran and the U.S., reportedly closed its airspace ahead of the strike, and Iran sent word of the attack through intermediaries. According to President Trump, 13 out of 14 missiles fired were intercepted, and the single missile that hit its target caused minimal damage.
In public, however, Iranian state media hailed the operation as a military triumph, running footage of missile launches set to patriotic music and inflammatory rhetoric. “We warn our enemies that the era of hit-and-run is over,” a military spokesperson declared.
Trump’s Tightrope Diplomacy
President Trump’s response was uncharacteristically diplomatic, even praising Iran for its restraint:
“Thank you for giving us early notice… No lives were lost,” he posted on social media. “They’ve gotten it out of their system.”
Shortly after, Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, though by Tuesday morning, that fragile truce had already shown signs of cracking. The President vented frustration at both nations for their conduct, remarking, “They don’t know what the [expletive] they’re doing.”
Multiple Narratives of Victory
Ali Vaez, Iran director at the International Crisis Group, explained the emerging political posturing:
“The United States can claim it degraded Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Israel can claim it dealt a major blow to a regional adversary. Iran can claim it stood its ground and retaliated.”
The result is a tenuous equilibrium, where all parties are pausing but none have truly backed down.
Iran’s Hidden Concerns
Beneath the surface, however, Iranian leaders are deeply wary. Officials told local media that the country lacks the economic and military strength to sustain a prolonged conflict. Widespread displacement in Tehran and economic disruption shuttered businesses, struggling workers, and volatile markets have exposed the nation’s internal vulnerabilities.
Sadegh Norouzi, a political figure in Tehran, put it bluntly during a virtual town hall:
“Our country does not have the capacity to continue this war. We cannot match the technological and military superiority of the U.S. and Israel.”
Even voices close to the powerful Revolutionary Guards Corps have expressed concern. Some analysts affiliated with the group urged caution against widening the conflict, advocating instead for focus on the ongoing hostilities with Israel.
Israel Maintains Pressure
Meanwhile, Israel has kept up pressure. In addition to strikes on suspected nuclear sites, Israeli forces targeted Evin Prison in Tehran, notorious for detaining political prisoners and foreign nationals. Israeli authorities issued warnings to Tehran residents to avoid government buildings as more airstrikes were anticipated.
Despite the aggressive military campaign, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared that Israel achieved its goals: halting Iran’s nuclear ambitions and weakening its regional influence.
Western Doubts Remain
The U.S. intelligence community, while skeptical of claims that Iran is actively pursuing nuclear weapons, concedes that the country holds a significant stockpile of enriched uranium. Questions persist about whether Iran has the capacity or intent to accelerate toward nuclear weaponization.
Western observers now wonder if Iran will seek covert ways to retaliate or pivot toward negotiations to lift crushing sanctions. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, currently on a diplomatic mission to Turkey, Russia, and Turkmenistan, said:
“Yes, there was harm, but the attacks failed to meet their main objectives to strip us of our capabilities.”
An Uneasy Pause
What happens next remains uncertain. The ceasefire, for now, is more of a pause than a resolution. Iran has indicated it has no appetite for broader war. The United States seems to prefer restraint, at least for the moment. And Israel, though willing to fight, is facing international scrutiny over the intensity of its airstrikes.
The world watches nervously as three powerful nations each walk away from the edge of war at least temporarily with each declaring victory, even as the path forward remains shrouded in mistrust, strategic ambiguity, and a region still reeling from days of fire and fury.
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