In the early hours of Thursday, May 31, 2024, residents of Kukawa Local Government Area in Borno State were summoned to a gathering. But this was no town hall meeting or community celebration. Instead, it was a chilling ultimatum delivered by members of the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP): Leave your homes by Saturday, or face death.
This harrowing edict, coming just days after ISWAP brutally killed fifteen fishermen in nearby Tumbun Rogo, marks a disturbing escalation in the terror group’s tactics. No longer content with sporadic attacks or resource theft, ISWAP now seeks to depopulate entire communities, to redraw the human geography of Nigeria’s North-East through coercion and fear.
The gravity of this development cannot be overstated. When a non-state actor can dictate where citizens may or may not live, it signals a catastrophic erosion of state authority. In essence, ISWAP is claiming the most fundamental power of governance—control over territory—not through military conquest but through psychological warfare.
This “leave or die” ultimatum is a multifaceted attack on Nigeria’s sovereignty:
- Territorial Challenge: By forcing residents out, ISWAP is attempting to create de facto “no-go zones” for the Nigerian state, areas where its writ does not run.
- Population Control: More than just land, ISWAP seeks to control people. Displacing residents allows them to reshape local demographics, potentially creating a more acquiescent population.
- Resource Grab: Kukawa LGA, with its proximity to Lake Chad, is rich in fishing resources. By evicting locals, ISWAP aims to monopolize these economic assets.
- Psychological Warfare: Such ultimatums sow terror far beyond the immediate area. Residents in other towns will wonder: “Are we next?” This fear can paralyze communities, making them easier to control.
- State Humiliation: When citizens flee en masse at terrorists’ behest, it’s a public relations disaster for the government, undermining its claim to provide basic security.
The human cost of this tactic is devastating. Imagine being told that the land where your ancestors are buried, where your children took their first steps, is no longer yours—not because you choose to leave, but because staying means death. The psychological trauma is incalculable.
Moreover, those who do flee face dire prospects. Some head to Kross Kauwa or Monguno, but these destinations are already strained, hosting thousands displaced by earlier conflicts. More arrivals mean more pressure on scarce resources—water, food, shelter—potentially sowing seeds of tension between host communities and newcomers.
ISWAP’s brazenness in Kukawa also raises alarming questions about its current capabilities. This isn’t a hit-and-run attack but a sustained effort to reshape regional dynamics. Does this indicate that the group has grown stronger, despite years of military operations against it? Or does it reflect a more troubling reality—that certain areas are now so neglected by state forces that terrorists can operate with near impunity?
The timing of this development is particularly galling. In August 2023, less than a year ago, Nigeria celebrated the “technical defeat” of Boko Haram, ISWAP’s precursor. Government officials and military brass assured the nation that the terrorists were on their last legs. Now, in May 2024, we see ISWAP not just surviving but expanding its grip, even dictating population movements. This dissonance between official narratives and ground realities erodes public trust, a commodity already in short supply.
Furthermore, ISWAP’s actions in Kukawa offer a grim preview of their governance model. This isn’t just terrorism; it’s a form of state-building. By controlling who can live where, ISWAP is attempting to establish its own twisted version of “law and order.” If unchecked, we could see them gradualy instituting other trappings of governance—taxation, schooling, even a perverted form of justice—all under the black flag of their caliphate.
The Nigerian government’s response to this crisis will be a litmus test. Will it treat ISWAP’s “leave or die” edict as just another terrorist incident, to be tackled through routine military operations? Or will it recognize this as a fundamental challenge to its sovereignty, requiring a comprehensive, multi-faceted response?
Such a response must go beyond kinetic action. It needs:
- Rapid humanitarian aid to support those forced to flee.
- A strategic communications campaign to counter ISWAP’s psychological warfare.
- Economic initiatives to revitalize the North-East, giving people reasons to stay and return.
- Enhanced intelligence to understand how ISWAP is evolving its tactics.
- Diplomatic efforts to boost regional cooperation, as ISWAP’s influence doesn’t stop at borders.
ISWAP’s “leave or die” ultimatum in Kukawa LGA is more than a local tragedy; it’s a national emergency. When terrorists can dictate where Nigerians may live, every citizen’s freedom is diminished. This moment calls for a united, innovative response—not just to reclaim territory, but to reaffirm the very principles of nationhood. Nigeria’s battle in the North-East isn’t just against terrorists; it’s a fight to determine who shapes the country’s future geography, both physical and human.
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Reference
‘Leave or die’ — ISWAP threatens Borno communities published in Dailypost