Nigeria’s Crude Oil Output Slips Again as Global Prices Plunge
Nigeria’s crude oil production has recorded another decline for the second consecutive month, raising concerns over the country’s ability to meet its revenue targets amid a global drop in oil prices.
Fresh data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) indicates that the country produced an average of 1.40 million barrels per day (mbpd) in March 2025. This marks a decline from February’s output of 1.465 mbpd and is significantly below January’s 1.5 mbpd mark, which had momentarily kindled optimism about reaching the national target of 2 mbpd.
The report further showed that combined oil production, including condensates, fell from 1.78 mbpd in January to 1.603 mbpd in March.
According to NUPRC, daily crude oil output in March fluctuated between a low of 1.49 million barrels and a peak of 1.76 million barrels. The average crude component stood at 1,400,783 barrels per day, representing only 93% of the 1.5 mbpd quota set for Nigeria by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Industry analysts say this downward trend could severely impact Nigeria’s economic projections, especially given the crude oil benchmark of $75 per barrel used in the 2025 federal budget. At present, Brent crude is trading at $64.76 per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark stands at $61.50—both more than $10 below the projected figure.
Longstanding Challenges Persist
Despite initial hopes at the start of the year, Nigeria continues to struggle with issues such as oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and declining investment in upstream operations—factors that have prevented consistent growth in output.
For three consecutive years (2022–2024), Nigeria failed to meet its OPEC-approved production targets. While output briefly improved in January 2025, the downward spiral resumed almost immediately afterward.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, remains optimistic about a production rebound, reiterating government ambition to reach 3 mbpd in combined crude and condensate output. He has repeatedly cited the “Drill, baby, drill” mantra as a key strategy, referencing the aggressive exploration approach once endorsed by former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Lokpobiri insists that such an increase would not violate OPEC agreements, but stakeholders question the feasibility of this ambition given the persistent setbacks.
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Nigeria’s Crude Oil Output Slips Again as Global Prices Plunge