The 2027 Presidency Debate: Ganduje, El-Rufai, and the Dangerous Game of Political Zoning in Nigeria
The recent controversy sparked by the National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Alhaji Abdullahi Ganduje, over his call for northern politicians to abandon any ambition of contesting the presidency in 2027 has once again brought to the fore the contentious issue of zoning and power rotation in Nigerian politics. Ganduje’s statement, which essentially endorsed President Bola Tinubu for a second term and dismissed northern aspirations for the presidency, has drawn sharp criticism from northern leaders and groups, exposing the deep-seated divisions and power struggles within the ruling party and the country at large.
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At the heart of this debate is the question of whether Nigeria’s democracy should be guided by the principle of zoning or by merit and competence. Ganduje’s assertion that the North should “perish” any ambition for the presidency in 2027, ostensibly to allow Tinubu to complete a second term, has been interpreted by many as a betrayal of northern interests and a dangerous precedent that undermines the democratic process.
The Zoning Debate: A Double-Edged Sword
Zoning, or the rotational presidency, has been a contentious issue in Nigerian politics since the return to democracy in 1999. The unwritten agreement that power should rotate between the North and the South has been a way to manage the country’s ethnic and regional diversity. However, this arrangement has often been criticized for prioritizing regional balance over competence and performance. Ganduje’s statement, while consistent with the zoning principle, has reignited the debate about whether this system is still relevant or if it has become a tool for political manipulation.
Ganduje’s argument that the North should wait until after Tinubu’s second term to produce a president is not without merit, especially considering that the North held the presidency for eight years under Muhammadu Buhari. However, his critics argue that such a stance stifles political competition and undermines the democratic rights of individuals to contest for office, regardless of their region of origin. The reaction from northern leaders, including former Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai, who hinted at a possible northern backlash in 2027, underscores the deep divisions within the APC and the broader northern political elite.
The North’s Political Unity: Myth or Reality?
One of the most striking aspects of this controversy is the apparent lack of unity among northern leaders. While Ganduje appears to be aligning himself with Tinubu’s camp, other northern stakeholders, such as the Middle Belt Forum (MBF) and the Arewa Youth Consultative Forum (AYCF), have vehemently opposed his stance. This divergence of opinions highlights the fact that the North is not a monolithic entity but a diverse region with varying political interests and agendas.
Anthony Sani, former Secretary-General of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), aptly noted that the North does not act in unison when it comes to partisan politics. Historically, northern voters have demonstrated a willingness to support candidates from other regions if they believe it serves their interests. For instance, in the 2023 presidential election, many northern voters supported Tinubu over Atiku Abubakar, a fellow northerner. This suggests that the North’s political behavior is more pragmatic than ideological, and any attempt to impose a unified position on the region is likely to fail.
The Danger of Political Jobbery and Distraction
Another critical issue raised by this controversy is the tendency of Nigerian politicians to prioritize personal and regional interests over the welfare of the people. As Emmanuel Obe, Chairman of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) in the North-West zone, pointed out, the focus on 2027 is premature and distracting. With Nigerians grappling with severe economic challenges, insecurity, and inadequate infrastructure, the last thing the country needs is a prolonged debate about zoning and power rotation.
Ganduje’s call for northern politicians to step aside in 2027 has been interpreted by many as an attempt to curry favor with Tinubu and secure his own political future. This perception is further reinforced by the fact that Ganduje, a northerner, is seen as prioritizing the interests of a southern president over those of his own region. Such actions not only erode public trust in political leaders but also divert attention from the urgent need to address the country’s pressing problems.
The Way Forward: Beyond Zoning
The 2027 presidency debate should serve as a wake-up call for Nigeria to move beyond the politics of zoning and focus on building a merit-based system that prioritizes competence, integrity, and performance. While zoning may have been necessary in the past to ensure inclusivity and balance, it has increasingly become a tool for political manipulation and exclusion. The idea that certain regions or individuals should be barred from contesting for office based on their ethnicity or region of origin is antithetical to the principles of democracy and equal opportunity.
As Suleiman Abdul-Azeez of the Northern Elders Forum (NEF) rightly noted, democracy thrives on free and fair competition, where all eligible candidates have the right to contest for office without fear of intimidation or coercion. Any attempt to limit the choices available to voters, whether through zoning or other means, undermines the democratic process and denies citizens the opportunity to choose their leaders based on merit.
Conclusion: A Call for Political Maturity
The controversy surrounding Ganduje’s statement is a reflection of the deep-seated divisions and power struggles within Nigerian politics. While the debate over zoning and power rotation is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, it is imperative that Nigerian leaders prioritize the welfare of the people over personal and regional interests. The focus should be on delivering good governance, addressing the country’s myriad challenges, and creating an enabling environment for all citizens to thrive.
As the 2027 elections approach, Nigerian politicians must resist the temptation to engage in divisive rhetoric and instead work towards building a more inclusive and equitable society. The future of Nigeria’s democracy depends on the ability of its leaders to rise above narrow interests and embrace the principles of fairness, justice, and equal opportunity for all. Only then can the country truly realize its potential as a united and prosperous nation?
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2027: Ganduje, El-Rufai spark fresh row over North’s position on Tinubu