WASHINGTON, D.C. Hopes for a swift U.S.-Japan trade agreement have dimmed significantly after negotiations between the two countries ended in stalemate last week, raising serious doubts about President Donald Trump’s ambitious goal of sealing “90 trade deals in 90 days.”
Despite weeks of confident signals from the White House that a deal with Tokyo was imminent, Japan’s top trade envoy Ryosei Akazawa left Washington empty-handed. In a statement to Japanese media, Akazawa criticized Washington’s “extremely regrettable” approach, emphasizing Tokyo’s reluctance to agree to unfavorable terms ahead of key domestic elections.
President Trump and his trade team had pitched Japan as a “first mover” opportunity — a chance to secure preferential terms by quickly aligning with the U.S. administration’s post-tariff vision. But Tokyo’s firm resistance indicates that not even longstanding allies are prepared to yield easily to Washington’s pressure.
Mixed Signals, Waning Credibility
While President Trump continues to maintain that “big progress” was made during the talks, analysts and foreign officials remain skeptical. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick have both painted a picture of progress, insisting the administration is in control of trade talks, with more than 75 countries reportedly in line to make deals.
However, analysts argue that such optimism is increasingly detached from reality. “Japan was widely expected to be an early test case,” wrote Macquarie strategists Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry in a note to investors. “Instead, talks have stalled without a clear path forward.”
Key issues likely hampering negotiations include U.S. demands for broader access to Japan’s agricultural markets, expectations for increased Japanese defense spending, pressure to purchase American liquefied natural gas, and the contentious topic of Japanese yen revaluation — which Japanese officials are expected to firmly oppose during upcoming meetings in Washington.
Global Pressures and Political Constraints
Complicating the landscape further is mounting resistance from China. In response to Washington’s sweeping tariff hikes — which include a staggering 145% increase on Chinese imports — Beijing has warned that any nation cooperating with the U.S. at China’s expense will face consequences.
“China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China’s interests,” a spokesperson for the Chinese Commerce Ministry said Monday. “If this happens, China will never accept it and will resolutely take countermeasures.”
Japan’s own political calendar is also playing a role in its hesitation. With upper house elections set for July 20, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida appears wary of appearing too conciliatory to the U.S. before voters head to the polls — particularly while tensions with China remain high and economic nationalism resonates with parts of the electorate.
A Long Road Ahead
The failed talks with Japan underscore the formidable roadblocks facing President Trump’s broader trade strategy. Far from ushering in a wave of quick wins, the administration’s aggressive stance appears to be hardening resistance among key partners and injecting greater uncertainty into global markets.
The result: investor anxiety is growing. As the U.S. dollar weakens, markets are adjusting expectations. “Trading partners may try to run out the clock on Trump,” Macquarie analysts warned. “They may believe that as the U.S. economy slows, the White House will be forced to offer better terms.”
In the end, what was marketed as a sprint toward global trade dominance now looks increasingly like a marathon. And if the outcome of the U.S.-Japan talks is any indication, the road to Trump’s “90 deals in 90 days” may be far longer and more uncertain than his administration ever anticipated.
Reference