US Acquires $643m Worth of Nigerian Products in Two Months – Analysis
The United States purchased Nigerian goods valued at $643.1 million within the first two months of 2025 just ahead of new import duties set to be enforced by the Trump administration on April 9, 2025.
These impending tariffs have sparked apprehension regarding their likely influence on Nigeria–US commerce. Fortunately, Nigeria’s key exports—petroleum and minerals—are exempt from the new levies, providing a degree of reassurance for the country’s dominant export industries.
Data sourced from the United States International Trade Commission indicates that Nigeria’s exports to the US (measured on a customs basis) dropped to $286.3 million in February 2025, compared to $423.6 million in the same month of the previous year—reflecting a 32.4% decline. On a cumulative basis, exports fell from $951.6 million in early 2024 to $643.1 million in 2025, maintaining the same 32.4% decrease.
When measured using the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) model, Nigeria’s February 2025 shipments were valued at $298.4 million, down from $436.3 million in February 2024, a 31.6% drop. Year-to-date, CIF-based exports shrank from $979.6 million in 2024 to $666.3 million this year, a 32% reduction.
For clarity, customs value refers to the price of goods upon entry into the US, excluding logistics and insurance costs, while CIF accounts for the full delivery cost, including shipping and coverage.
Despite the decrease in export volume, Nigeria’s trade surplus (based on customs value) for February 2025 rose considerably—reaching $187.2 million, up from $77.3 million in February 2024, a notable 142.2% surge. Cumulatively, Nigeria reversed its trade balance from a $158.8 million deficit in 2024 to a $44.3 million surplus in 2025—an improvement of 127.9%.
Overall trade volume between Nigeria and the US over January and February 2025 amounted to approximately $1.33 billion, showcasing the robust economic engagement between both nations.
On a Free Alongside Ship (FAS) basis, Nigeria’s domestic and foreign exports to the US stood at $473.6 million in February 2025—5.5% lower than the $501 million posted in the same month last year. Year-to-date, exports declined from $792.8 million in 2024 to $687.4 million in 2025, a 13.3% fall.
According to US trade data, a trade imbalance in favour of Nigeria was recorded in January 2025, with the US registering a deficit of $143 million. However, by February, the tables turned with a surplus of $187 million, leading to a $44 million year-to-date surplus.
Nigeria’s exports to the US surged in February to $474 million from January’s $214 million—a 121.5% rise. Year-to-date, exports reached $687 million, reflecting a strong rebound following a slow January.
On the other hand, US imports from Nigeria declined from $357 million in January to $286 million in February—down by 19.9%. Cumulatively, imports from Nigeria totalled $643 million for the two-month period.
The trend reversal between January and February 2025—from deficit to surplus—was driven by rising exports and fewer imports.
Furthermore, the US imported $413.57 million worth of Nigerian crude oil in the first two months of the year, totalling 5.3 million barrels. Crude oil represented 64.31% of Nigeria’s total exports to the US, valued at $666.3 million during the period—reaffirming its critical role in bilateral trade.
In February alone, Nigeria shipped 1.8 million barrels of crude to the US, valued at $142.2 million—a decline from January’s 3.5 million barrels worth $271.4 million. Month-over-month, this marked a 47.6% drop in value.
The CIF value of crude oil shipments fell from $278.2 million in January to $146.2 million in February. The cumulative CIF value for both months stood at $424.4 million, showing a month-to-month drop of 47.4%.
While petroleum and mineral exports remain protected under the new tariff regime, experts have warned of the potential adverse consequences for other Nigerian industries. Goods from agriculture and manufacturing—which previously benefited from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)—may now face increased competition and elevated operational costs.
In a related update, Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, downplayed the impact of the 14% tariff, describing its effect on Nigeria’s economy as “minimal.” Speaking at the inaugural Corporate Governance Forum in Abuja, Edun noted that Nigeria’s major exports—oil and minerals—remain unaffected.
He pointed out that compared to Vietnam’s 46% and China’s 34% tariff rates, Nigeria’s 14% is relatively moderate. “Between 2022 and 2024, Nigeria exported goods valued at N1.8tn, N2.6tn, and N5.5tn respectively, of which oil and mineral exports accounted for 92% or N5.08tn. This makes the tariff’s impact negligible if oil exports remain stable,” Edun said.
Nonetheless, he acknowledged that the economic management team is re-evaluating the national budget in response to shifting global trade realities.
The PUNCH previously reported that the 14% tariff imposed by the Trump-led US government could jeopardize Nigeria’s $10 billion annual exports to the country. Economists and trade groups fear it may escalate a global trade confrontation, increasing consumer costs, disrupting manufacturing, and reducing US demand for Nigerian oil.
Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics show that Nigeria’s total trade with the US reached N31.1 trillion from 2015 to 2024. During this time, Nigeria exported N16.4 trillion worth of goods and imported N14.71 trillion—resulting in a positive trade balance of N1.64 trillion.
A year-by-year analysis showed exports were valued at N344.27 billion in 2015, rising to N1.03 trillion in 2016, and peaking at N5.52 trillion in 2024. A sharp dip to N382.19 billion in 2020 was attributed to the global pandemic.
Meanwhile, the Minister of Industry, Trade, and Investment, Dr. Jumoke Oduwole, noted on Sunday that Nigeria’s non-oil exports may face headwinds as a result of the new tariffs, potentially making local goods less competitive in the US market.
Reference
US Acquires $643m Worth of Nigerian Products in Two Months – Analysis