Why 2027 Coalition Against Tinubu May Falter: A Critical Analysis
As Nigeria’s political landscape gears up for the 2027 presidential election, a coalition of opposition leaders has emerged with the goal of unseating President Bola Tinubu. However, the feasibility of this alliance achieving its objective remains uncertain, with former Director-General of the Labour Party (LP) Presidential Campaign Council, Akin Osuntokun, casting doubt on its chances of success.
The Complex Nature of Political Alliances in Nigeria
Political coalitions are not new in Nigeria. The country’s democratic history is replete with alliances that either crumbled before elections or failed to unseat incumbent governments due to internal discord. While opposition unity was instrumental in the All Progressives Congress (APC) victory over the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2015, the current circumstances are markedly different.
Osuntokun argues that Tinubu’s political acumen and strategic prowess make him a formidable opponent. “If he could secure victory in 2023 against all odds as a non-incumbent, his chances are even greater as a sitting president with the full weight of state machinery at his disposal,” he noted.
The Incumbency Advantage and Tinubu’s Political Machinery
The power of incumbency is a major factor in Nigerian elections. With control over state resources, security apparatus, and government institutions, the incumbent has a considerable edge. Tinubu, a seasoned political strategist, understands how to leverage these tools to consolidate power and neutralize opposition threats.
Furthermore, the President’s influence over key political stakeholders across regions gives him a strong advantage. His network within the ruling APC and among influential traditional and political elites could significantly weaken any opposition coalition’s ability to gain traction.
Internal Divisions Within the Coalition
One of the biggest threats to the success of the opposition alliance is internal discord. Historically, opposition coalitions in Nigeria have struggled with leadership wrangling, ideological differences, and personal ambitions. Osuntokun warns that unless the coalition can unanimously agree on a presidential candidate, it risks disintegration.
The North-South rotational presidency principle is another sticking point. Since 1999, Nigeria has maintained an informal power-sharing arrangement where leadership alternates between the North and South. If the coalition nominates a candidate from the North, figures from the South may feel alienated, leading to a loss of critical support.
“If the coalition fields a northern candidate like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, it risks violating the rotational principle and losing significant support, especially from Southern stakeholders,” Osuntokun cautioned.
Lessons from Past Political Alliances
The success of the APC coalition in 2015 was largely due to a unified goal and broad-based consensus. The opposition leaders at the time—Muhammadu Buhari, Bola Tinubu, and other major political figures—were willing to compromise for a common purpose. In contrast, the current opposition leaders, including Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Babachir Lawal, and Nasir El-Rufai, represent divergent interests that may not easily align.
The 2023 presidential election exposed deep-seated divisions within the opposition, with Atiku and Obi splitting votes that ultimately benefited Tinubu. Unless these differences are resolved and a single, widely acceptable candidate emerges, history may repeat itself in 2027.
The Road Ahead for the Opposition
Despite these challenges, Osuntokun acknowledges that forming a coalition is a necessary step for any serious opposition movement. “To effectively challenge the ruling party, opposition forces must unite under a grand platform. However, unity must go beyond rhetoric—there must be genuine commitment to a shared vision,” he stated.
For the coalition to succeed, it must:
Resolve Leadership Disputes: A clear and transparent mechanism for selecting a presidential candidate must be established to avoid infighting.
Present a Credible Alternative: Mere opposition to Tinubu is not enough; the coalition must offer a compelling policy agenda that resonates with Nigerians.
Engage in Grassroots Mobilization: Winning elections in Nigeria requires more than elite consensus; mobilizing voters at the grassroots level is crucial.
Navigate Regional Sentiments: The coalition must carefully balance regional and ethnic considerations to appeal to a broad base of voters.
The 2027 presidential election presents a significant political contest, with Tinubu poised to leverage his incumbency and strategic expertise to secure a second term. While opposition leaders are right to explore a coalition, the path to victory is fraught with challenges. Without unity, a clear strategy, and strong grassroots mobilization, the coalition’s efforts may ultimately falter, leaving Tinubu in a commanding position for reelection.
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Why 2027 Coalition Against Tinubu May Falter: A Critical Analysis